>>57623525>Actually the mud season being at its peak is the onoly thing protecting Russian forces in Ukraine right nowI don't think I agree with that. Ukraine is very clearly doing a holding action right now utilizing non-high mobility units to as great a degree as possible. They're trying to build up a critical mass of armor, mechanized infantry, support units, and all the material needed for a push like their previous breakthroughs except with far more ability to press and sustain it when they find an opening. I'm sure what they'd like most of all would be to drive to the sea in a southern thrust and cut the new Russian landbridge, which would completely shift the strategic situation in a way undeniable for even the most 5th column westerners. They want as much as possible, the more you use the fewer you lose and the better you can capitalize.
If they had to spend shit on firefighting across a huge front though that'd be a lot harder, so having static warfare suits them pretty well right now. Mud season on top of course, but I don't think they'd be doing a big attack right now even if it was dry. They need to make this count, because they have to consider Western domestic politics not just their own. That's a whole nother twist on this weird war and tradeoff for Western support. Ukraine needs to avoid any arguments about "quagmire!", they can't just count on being able to hold on themselves for 5 years or something, they need victories. They're probably feeling pretty good overall and I agree that the Russian forces are strained as hell but they still have serious challenges to overcome.
